Another Nail in the Predators Coffin...

As I have been daily following the sudden sale of the Nashville Predators, a story just came out that I believe signals prospective owner Balsillie's intentions of moving the team to Canada. The CBC and TSN are reporting that Balsillie has re-activated a deal with the city of Hamilton that gives him exclusive right to negotiate a team for the area, and would give him greater control of the arena, (if you want more details CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/story/2007/05/31/balsillie-hamilton.html, TSN: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=209447&hubname=nhl).

This is another news story that fits my theory.

1) Balsillie purchased the Preds with the intention of moving them (this has been pretty obvious to everyone after this is what likley blocked his acquisition of the Penguins).

2) The NHL is not as interested in protecting Nashville the way it did Pittsburgh.

3) Balsillie already knows the Board of Governors is going to back his move once he can terminate the Nashville lease. (I don't really know why the Preds fans are pinning their hopes on the sale being defeated)

now the fact that's he's got an arena deal in place lets me believe this....

4) I believe Balsillie is planning on breaking the lease with the city regardless of the attendance. Seriously there isn't the political pressure in Nashville for the city to support the team, the Preds fans (as good as they are, I won't resort to southern slander in this post, though there are anti-yankee people I met in North Carolina that would provoke me into it, but that's another topic) are in the minority. Can you imagine the political suicide it would be to buy up tickets for a billionaire owned sports franchise? Only the 14,000 or so that are attending games wouldn't kill them at the polls.

On the flip side, the non-hockey-loving majority would probably gladly take an extra $15-$20 Million settlement (read "bribe") on top of the exit fee to release the Preds from their lease, regardless of attendance figures (maybe as early as this summer as to avoid a lame duck season). This is the sad thing of it all. As much as the fan-base supports the team, the city doesn't, the big time music-companies don't, and the media doesn't, and I think that's been an obsticle in their growth.

What Balsillie's agreement does is open a possible place to park the Preds, either on a permanent basis, or until a new building can be built (remember that little 25 acre parcel in Cambridge).

5) Balsillie is planning on working with the Leafs and Sabres on a fee (again read "bribe") for infringing on their protected territory. Hamilton clearly lies within the 80km limit of both cities, but making a deal with the copps coliseum means he's willing to work something out, even if it's on a temporary basis (as one would assume it takes about 2 years to build a building). And perhaps Hamilton might become a permanent home, it is a larger metropolitan area than the Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area. Remember with the Board of Governers (which is made up of one representatve from each team) has the power to approve any relocation or sale. In a revenue sharing era they are very motivated to ensure the success of as many franshises as possible (in other words it is in their best interest to approve any move that would turn a team from a revenue sharing drain to a contributor).

So if Balsillie is posturing to move the team to Hamilton, it may make it more appealing to the leafs when they land in cambrige. With my assumption that the BoG is already on board, if the long term plan is to land them in Cambridge, the BoG can nudge Toronto by saying "at least we're not letting them move to Hamilton" to make it a little more palatable.

...the bottom line is I believe everything the media is speculating on Basillie already has a plan for. My assumptions just make too much sense. The most likley way I could be wrong is assumption #2, meaning in fact BoG is interested in protecting Nashville, and is willing to kill this sale the same way they did the Pens sale. But I don't think Balsillie pays $220M for a frachise valued at $140M if he doesn't know the BoG is on board.

...one other good thing that comes of this is that this may be the first uprising of the BoG against Commisioner Bettman. That they are no longer rubberstamping his expansion/relocations desires as they were in the late 90s. They aren't buying the argumen that this non-trad hockey market invasion is necessary for league health. And that his current deal (reportedly 5 years longer) is his last, as they are starting to see the error of this overzealous, underreasearched, expanson fee grab that is the southern growth.

The expansions/relocations that were authorized before Bettman's term (Anaheim, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Dallas, San Jose) have been quite succesful, note both south and north cities included, Florida being the only failue, and that's really only been realized in the last 3 or so years. Bettmans relocations/expansions Nasvhille, Atlanta, Phoenix, Carolina have been suspect at best. Denver was a success, and Minnesota and Columbus have been good (Minnesota's was obvious however). Bottom line, the BoG is no longer blinded by collecting the expansion fees, and no longer doing whatever Bettman wants. Nashville is just the first domino to fall, Atlanta and Phoenix (return of the Jets!!?) are not far behind if this deal goes through.

Back on topic, the only thing I see Keeping the Preds from Canada is if during a Baltimore Colts style move, the spirits of those midnight Mayflower vans overcome them and they accidentially land in Indianapolis.

(drawing this comparison to the Preds potential method of midnight moving, don't mistake this as supporing the NHL in Indy, they're too small).