As I have been daily following the sudden sale of the Nashville Predators, a story just came out that I believe signals prospective owner Balsillie's intentions of moving the team to Canada. The CBC and TSN are reporting that Balsillie has re-activated a deal with the city of Hamilton that gives him exclusive right to negotiate a team for the area, and would give him greater control of the arena, (if you want more details CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/story/2007/05/31/balsillie-hamilton.html, TSN: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=209447&hubname=nhl).
This is another news story that fits my theory.
1) Balsillie purchased the Preds with the intention of moving them (this has been pretty obvious to everyone after this is what likley blocked his acquisition of the Penguins).
2) The NHL is not as interested in protecting Nashville the way it did Pittsburgh.
3) Balsillie already knows the Board of Governors is going to back his move once he can terminate the Nashville lease. (I don't really know why the Preds fans are pinning their hopes on the sale being defeated)
now the fact that's he's got an arena deal in place lets me believe this....
4) I believe Balsillie is planning on breaking the lease with the city regardless of the attendance. Seriously there isn't the political pressure in Nashville for the city to support the team, the Preds fans (as good as they are, I won't resort to southern slander in this post, though there are anti-yankee people I met in North Carolina that would provoke me into it, but that's another topic) are in the minority. Can you imagine the political suicide it would be to buy up tickets for a billionaire owned sports franchise? Only the 14,000 or so that are attending games wouldn't kill them at the polls.
On the flip side, the non-hockey-loving majority would probably gladly take an extra $15-$20 Million settlement (read "bribe") on top of the exit fee to release the Preds from their lease, regardless of attendance figures (maybe as early as this summer as to avoid a lame duck season). This is the sad thing of it all. As much as the fan-base supports the team, the city doesn't, the big time music-companies don't, and the media doesn't, and I think that's been an obsticle in their growth.
What Balsillie's agreement does is open a possible place to park the Preds, either on a permanent basis, or until a new building can be built (remember that little 25 acre parcel in Cambridge).
5) Balsillie is planning on working with the Leafs and Sabres on a fee (again read "bribe") for infringing on their protected territory. Hamilton clearly lies within the 80km limit of both cities, but making a deal with the copps coliseum means he's willing to work something out, even if it's on a temporary basis (as one would assume it takes about 2 years to build a building). And perhaps Hamilton might become a permanent home, it is a larger metropolitan area than the Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area. Remember with the Board of Governers (which is made up of one representatve from each team) has the power to approve any relocation or sale. In a revenue sharing era they are very motivated to ensure the success of as many franshises as possible (in other words it is in their best interest to approve any move that would turn a team from a revenue sharing drain to a contributor).
So if Balsillie is posturing to move the team to Hamilton, it may make it more appealing to the leafs when they land in cambrige. With my assumption that the BoG is already on board, if the long term plan is to land them in Cambridge, the BoG can nudge Toronto by saying "at least we're not letting them move to Hamilton" to make it a little more palatable.
...the bottom line is I believe everything the media is speculating on Basillie already has a plan for. My assumptions just make too much sense. The most likley way I could be wrong is assumption #2, meaning in fact BoG is interested in protecting Nashville, and is willing to kill this sale the same way they did the Pens sale. But I don't think Balsillie pays $220M for a frachise valued at $140M if he doesn't know the BoG is on board.
...one other good thing that comes of this is that this may be the first uprising of the BoG against Commisioner Bettman. That they are no longer rubberstamping his expansion/relocations desires as they were in the late 90s. They aren't buying the argumen that this non-trad hockey market invasion is necessary for league health. And that his current deal (reportedly 5 years longer) is his last, as they are starting to see the error of this overzealous, underreasearched, expanson fee grab that is the southern growth.
The expansions/relocations that were authorized before Bettman's term (Anaheim, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Dallas, San Jose) have been quite succesful, note both south and north cities included, Florida being the only failue, and that's really only been realized in the last 3 or so years. Bettmans relocations/expansions Nasvhille, Atlanta, Phoenix, Carolina have been suspect at best. Denver was a success, and Minnesota and Columbus have been good (Minnesota's was obvious however). Bottom line, the BoG is no longer blinded by collecting the expansion fees, and no longer doing whatever Bettman wants. Nashville is just the first domino to fall, Atlanta and Phoenix (return of the Jets!!?) are not far behind if this deal goes through.
Back on topic, the only thing I see Keeping the Preds from Canada is if during a Baltimore Colts style move, the spirits of those midnight Mayflower vans overcome them and they accidentially land in Indianapolis.
(drawing this comparison to the Preds potential method of midnight moving, don't mistake this as supporing the NHL in Indy, they're too small).
31 May 2007
28 May 2007
Anaheim Ducks, unworthy finalist, bad for the "New NHL"
I feel I need to better explain my position that I think the Ducks are the dirtest team in the NHL.
The Ducks were the most penalized team in the league during the regular season, the Ducks' Teemu Selanne was caught using an illegal stick in the last week of the season (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=270404025), the Ducks are the most suspended team in the playoffs. One of the aforementions suspensions involved an incident where Chris Pronger led a hit with his elbow against the Wings' Tomas Holsmtrom (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=270515025). With the Ducks trailing 4-0, Rob Niedermeyer and pronger sandwiched Holmstrom against the boards, with Pronger's elbow flying. It doesn't get much cheaper than that, especially given the game situation. After the Pronger incidend Ducks GM Brian Burke (former NHL punishment czar and Canucks GM) had the nerve to spin it by saying if you look at it from an end view it wasn't that bad, however from any other it was ugly, including the referee standing feet away. How insulting is that.
This is completly different from the situation in 2003, the Ducks last trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. I thought they represent the West quite proudly. And Guigere v. Brodeur was a 7 game goaltenders' duel for the ages. Some people think I'm still sour about the Wild's first round exit at the hands of the Ducks, however I didn't feel that way after the Ducks swept the Wild in 2003, I definatly was willing to admit the Ducks were the better team then.
The Ducks are shaming everything the "New NHL" stands for, and there success is in fact bad for the leauge. Cause once GM's see something that works, they copy quickly, and all the work to get the dirty hits and clutch and grab style out of hockey may ultimatly be undone.
The Ducks were the most penalized team in the league during the regular season, the Ducks' Teemu Selanne was caught using an illegal stick in the last week of the season (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=270404025), the Ducks are the most suspended team in the playoffs. One of the aforementions suspensions involved an incident where Chris Pronger led a hit with his elbow against the Wings' Tomas Holsmtrom (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=270515025). With the Ducks trailing 4-0, Rob Niedermeyer and pronger sandwiched Holmstrom against the boards, with Pronger's elbow flying. It doesn't get much cheaper than that, especially given the game situation. After the Pronger incidend Ducks GM Brian Burke (former NHL punishment czar and Canucks GM) had the nerve to spin it by saying if you look at it from an end view it wasn't that bad, however from any other it was ugly, including the referee standing feet away. How insulting is that.
This is completly different from the situation in 2003, the Ducks last trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. I thought they represent the West quite proudly. And Guigere v. Brodeur was a 7 game goaltenders' duel for the ages. Some people think I'm still sour about the Wild's first round exit at the hands of the Ducks, however I didn't feel that way after the Ducks swept the Wild in 2003, I definatly was willing to admit the Ducks were the better team then.
The Ducks are shaming everything the "New NHL" stands for, and there success is in fact bad for the leauge. Cause once GM's see something that works, they copy quickly, and all the work to get the dirty hits and clutch and grab style out of hockey may ultimatly be undone.
Stanley Cup Finals Preview
STANLEY CUP FINALS
Ottawa v. Anaheim
Let's start the Preview with how they got there. The Ottawa Senators finished the regular season red hot. They have dispatched the offenivsly loaded Pens, the defensivly loaded Devils, and the increadably deep Buffalo Sabres in 5 games each (12-3 overall in the playoffs). The Anaheim Ducks beat the suddenly offensivly dormant Minnesota Wild, the always offensivly dormant Vancouver Canucks, and the too old to go deep Detroit Red Wings. I don't know why the media are making the Anaheim Ducks the prohibitive favorites, the Senators 12-3 run is far more impressive.
The Senators we found out are as deep as the Sabres, this will prove valuable as the season goes on. The Anaheim Ducks are tough, they don't give much away, and Jean-Sebastein Guigure is playing like a goalie expecting a $7M/yr deal when he becomes a free agent this summer. Ottawa's Ray Emrey has seems to have improved as these playoffs go on, but he still gives away some adventurous rebounds, so far the D in front of him have been doing a great job of keeping them out of harms way, but the Ducks are tougher in front of the net than anyone the Sens have seen. Anaheim hits hard, and they play tougher defense than than anyone Ottawa has seen so far (New Jersey was capable of being this tough, but didn't show it at all against the Sens).
But Ottawa has more weapons and is capable of rolling 4 lines without giving up much talent, they are no slouches in their own end either, this is something Anaheim hasn't seen.
The question is will Ottawa continue to generate enough offense against the hard hitting Ducks, and can Emery help his team enough to keep them in close games.
This series will be a lot of back and forth, but I think it benefits the Sens the longer it goes.
I predict the Cup returns to Canada for the first time in 14 years.
Ottawa in 6.
NOTE: This was written before the start of game 1, but held out due to the closed ballot in our Stanley Cup playoff pool.
Ottawa v. Anaheim
Let's start the Preview with how they got there. The Ottawa Senators finished the regular season red hot. They have dispatched the offenivsly loaded Pens, the defensivly loaded Devils, and the increadably deep Buffalo Sabres in 5 games each (12-3 overall in the playoffs). The Anaheim Ducks beat the suddenly offensivly dormant Minnesota Wild, the always offensivly dormant Vancouver Canucks, and the too old to go deep Detroit Red Wings. I don't know why the media are making the Anaheim Ducks the prohibitive favorites, the Senators 12-3 run is far more impressive.
The Senators we found out are as deep as the Sabres, this will prove valuable as the season goes on. The Anaheim Ducks are tough, they don't give much away, and Jean-Sebastein Guigure is playing like a goalie expecting a $7M/yr deal when he becomes a free agent this summer. Ottawa's Ray Emrey has seems to have improved as these playoffs go on, but he still gives away some adventurous rebounds, so far the D in front of him have been doing a great job of keeping them out of harms way, but the Ducks are tougher in front of the net than anyone the Sens have seen. Anaheim hits hard, and they play tougher defense than than anyone Ottawa has seen so far (New Jersey was capable of being this tough, but didn't show it at all against the Sens).
But Ottawa has more weapons and is capable of rolling 4 lines without giving up much talent, they are no slouches in their own end either, this is something Anaheim hasn't seen.
The question is will Ottawa continue to generate enough offense against the hard hitting Ducks, and can Emery help his team enough to keep them in close games.
This series will be a lot of back and forth, but I think it benefits the Sens the longer it goes.
I predict the Cup returns to Canada for the first time in 14 years.
Ottawa in 6.
NOTE: This was written before the start of game 1, but held out due to the closed ballot in our Stanley Cup playoff pool.
Stanley Cup Finals Predictions
Okay last round last chance, here it is!
STANLEY CUP FINAL
Series O: Anaheim v. Ottawa
Predictions are due by 6:30pm Monday (30 minutes before the start of game one). It is 10 points per game, so anyone can still win!
Winona Players: If you care to vote by closed ballot send a message to Bob Spencer on facebook. He will keep the selection secret until after the game starts.
Mpls Players: Please give your Pick to Jordan Jelinek, he will keep your selecton secret and report it when the game starts!
Good Luck!
STANLEY CUP FINAL
Series O: Anaheim v. Ottawa
Predictions are due by 6:30pm Monday (30 minutes before the start of game one). It is 10 points per game, so anyone can still win!
Winona Players: If you care to vote by closed ballot send a message to Bob Spencer on facebook. He will keep the selection secret until after the game starts.
Mpls Players: Please give your Pick to Jordan Jelinek, he will keep your selecton secret and report it when the game starts!
Good Luck!
26 May 2007
Relocation Ramifications of the Predators sale
If as JW!O expects, the Preds do exercise the "cure clause" in their lease with Nashville this season, the Preds may be one year away from relocation. Prospective owner billionare Jim Basillie (who signed a letter of intent with current owner Craig Liepold to purchase the team for a reported $220M), tried to buy the Penguins earlier this year. However, that deal fell through because the leauge wanted to attach too many clauses that would make it tough to relocate the team if an arena deal could be reached. In essense the NHL kind of protected Pittsburgh by attatching too many conditions to the sale for Basillie's liking.
However, I believe Nashville will not enjoy such protection because it's fans have not been filling their building the way the Penguins had been, and this sale is more likley to be approved even with an understanding a relocation is possible to probable. The Predators still have a lease with Nashville, but my last post outlined how they can get out of that. So if we're down to one season in Nashville what can happen.
The speculation may surprise you. Most of it is that Basillie wants to move a team to Southern Ontario. Currently Ottawa and Toronto have NHL teams in Ontario and are the two largest metropolitan areas in the province. The third largest is Hamilton, with about 682,000 in the metropolitan area (which makes it about the size of the Quebec City, or Winnipeg metropolitan areas, Canadian Demographic info click here) Hamilton does already have an NHL-quality building in place, the 17,500 seat Copps Coliseum (currently home to the AHL's Hamilton Bulldogs). However, Hamilton lies within a 50mi (80km) protected area of both the Buffalo Sabres and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Which means these teams would likley have to be compensated to relinquish claims in order to put a team there.
One other idea is to put the team in the Kitchner, Ontario metropolitan area, one reason is that this area contains the city of Waterloo, Ontario which is home to Basillie's company Research In Motion. Also this area lies outside of Toronto's protected area, but still within 30-40 miles of Hamilton. (Trouble visualizing this? click on the map I made, using Google MyMaps feature) Also there is spec based on the fact that Basillie has purchased 25 acres in Waterloo, perhaps to build a new arena from the ground. However Kitcher is considerably smaller than Hamilton, and for this to work, one would speculate they'd be counting on drawing current Leafs fans from the Hamilton area.
If they go this route, the team would probably well served to call themselves the Ontario Predators (in the case they don't change the name), or South Ontario Predators instead of the Kitchner-Waterloo-Cambridge-Hamilton-London-Guelph-Brantford Predators.
The other ideas include a return of the NHL to Québec City or Winnipeg (The two largest Canadian cities without NHL teams). They already have a 15,000 seat arena (MTS Centre) ready in Winnipeg, however that may be too small for the NHL, especially since the Preds are already drawing 13,000 plus in Nashville. For that to work prices would have to be higher than average in Winnipeg (which is probably possible because Nashville prices are among the lowest in the league) to compensate and anything less than a sellout would be unacceptable. Québec City is in a similar situation, however their Colisée Pepsi (formerly the Colisée de Québec, the home of the Québec Nordiques until 1995 when they moved to Denver), is much older and doesn't enjoy the club and luxury seating of Winnipeg's MTSC.
If the team is to stay in the States Kansas City has to remain the front runner. It was their offer for the Penguins that ultimatley forced the city to improve their arena offer. Kansas City has a beautiful new building (Sprint Center) with no anchor tenant. There is some sentiment to return to Hartford, but honestly I believe that has more to do with the wishes of Bristol, CT based ESPN than anything. Also there has been speculation on Houston, Seattle, and Portland, and even Vegas,as viable NHL cities (see their demographic info here).
Why I bring this long list of cities up? Because I believe the relocation of the Predators is just the beginning. The Florida Panthers, Atlanta Thrashers, and Phoenix Coyotes should also be candidates to move once they see how the Preds have improved their situation.
These are the recent relocations and expansions under Commisioner Gary Bettman, these relocations/expansions were rushed, and based on population data alone, but not about how marketbale hockey is to these populations bases. This is why these relocations/expansions have not worked out as well as say San Jose, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, and Dallas (kills me to admit it, but the stars did succede in a post Bloomington world, though not nearly as well as the Wild are doing now, buisness-wise). However, all of these happened BEFORE Bettman, and would apper better thought out than Bettman's team moves/additions. I'm not even trying to make this a North-South thing, there are some so called "southern" teams that have done quiet well on the Pre-Bettman list.
Bettman's expansions/relocations have been motivated by demographic research that only factored in the size of a market (athough that wouldn't appear to be the case for Raleigh/Durham as the 40th TV market in the US), and not the demand for NHL hockey there. Which is why attendance has just been poor in these areas. I believe the expansions were motivated by millions in fees paid to the current owners, but underestimated the potential long term damage to the league. Under Bettman, only Minnesota and Columbus are expansions/relocations that have long term success, Carolina and Anaheim are starting to come around.
Teams are failing more than Gary wants to let on, and we're going to see teams need to move to stay healthy. Hopefully they get it right, cause the instability is bad for the game, but in these 4 cases (Nashville, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Florida) absolutly necessary. The Preds sale will prove to be the first domino to topple.
Original TSN Story: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=208743&hubname=nhl
However, I believe Nashville will not enjoy such protection because it's fans have not been filling their building the way the Penguins had been, and this sale is more likley to be approved even with an understanding a relocation is possible to probable. The Predators still have a lease with Nashville, but my last post outlined how they can get out of that. So if we're down to one season in Nashville what can happen.
The speculation may surprise you. Most of it is that Basillie wants to move a team to Southern Ontario. Currently Ottawa and Toronto have NHL teams in Ontario and are the two largest metropolitan areas in the province. The third largest is Hamilton, with about 682,000 in the metropolitan area (which makes it about the size of the Quebec City, or Winnipeg metropolitan areas, Canadian Demographic info click here) Hamilton does already have an NHL-quality building in place, the 17,500 seat Copps Coliseum (currently home to the AHL's Hamilton Bulldogs). However, Hamilton lies within a 50mi (80km) protected area of both the Buffalo Sabres and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Which means these teams would likley have to be compensated to relinquish claims in order to put a team there.
One other idea is to put the team in the Kitchner, Ontario metropolitan area, one reason is that this area contains the city of Waterloo, Ontario which is home to Basillie's company Research In Motion. Also this area lies outside of Toronto's protected area, but still within 30-40 miles of Hamilton. (Trouble visualizing this? click on the map I made, using Google MyMaps feature) Also there is spec based on the fact that Basillie has purchased 25 acres in Waterloo, perhaps to build a new arena from the ground. However Kitcher is considerably smaller than Hamilton, and for this to work, one would speculate they'd be counting on drawing current Leafs fans from the Hamilton area.
If they go this route, the team would probably well served to call themselves the Ontario Predators (in the case they don't change the name), or South Ontario Predators instead of the Kitchner-Waterloo-Cambridge-Hamilton-London-Guelph-Brantford Predators.
The other ideas include a return of the NHL to Québec City or Winnipeg (The two largest Canadian cities without NHL teams). They already have a 15,000 seat arena (MTS Centre) ready in Winnipeg, however that may be too small for the NHL, especially since the Preds are already drawing 13,000 plus in Nashville. For that to work prices would have to be higher than average in Winnipeg (which is probably possible because Nashville prices are among the lowest in the league) to compensate and anything less than a sellout would be unacceptable. Québec City is in a similar situation, however their Colisée Pepsi (formerly the Colisée de Québec, the home of the Québec Nordiques until 1995 when they moved to Denver), is much older and doesn't enjoy the club and luxury seating of Winnipeg's MTSC.
If the team is to stay in the States Kansas City has to remain the front runner. It was their offer for the Penguins that ultimatley forced the city to improve their arena offer. Kansas City has a beautiful new building (Sprint Center) with no anchor tenant. There is some sentiment to return to Hartford, but honestly I believe that has more to do with the wishes of Bristol, CT based ESPN than anything. Also there has been speculation on Houston, Seattle, and Portland, and even Vegas,as viable NHL cities (see their demographic info here).
Why I bring this long list of cities up? Because I believe the relocation of the Predators is just the beginning. The Florida Panthers, Atlanta Thrashers, and Phoenix Coyotes should also be candidates to move once they see how the Preds have improved their situation.
These are the recent relocations and expansions under Commisioner Gary Bettman, these relocations/expansions were rushed, and based on population data alone, but not about how marketbale hockey is to these populations bases. This is why these relocations/expansions have not worked out as well as say San Jose, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, and Dallas (kills me to admit it, but the stars did succede in a post Bloomington world, though not nearly as well as the Wild are doing now, buisness-wise). However, all of these happened BEFORE Bettman, and would apper better thought out than Bettman's team moves/additions. I'm not even trying to make this a North-South thing, there are some so called "southern" teams that have done quiet well on the Pre-Bettman list.
Bettman's expansions/relocations have been motivated by demographic research that only factored in the size of a market (athough that wouldn't appear to be the case for Raleigh/Durham as the 40th TV market in the US), and not the demand for NHL hockey there. Which is why attendance has just been poor in these areas. I believe the expansions were motivated by millions in fees paid to the current owners, but underestimated the potential long term damage to the league. Under Bettman, only Minnesota and Columbus are expansions/relocations that have long term success, Carolina and Anaheim are starting to come around.
Teams are failing more than Gary wants to let on, and we're going to see teams need to move to stay healthy. Hopefully they get it right, cause the instability is bad for the game, but in these 4 cases (Nashville, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Florida) absolutly necessary. The Preds sale will prove to be the first domino to topple.
Original TSN Story: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=208743&hubname=nhl
Nashville Predators sold
Thursday the blogosphere was rocked with news of the sale of the Nashville Predators to Research in Motion CEO Jim Basillie. This has fueled speculation as to whether the team will relocate. Basillie attempted to buy the Pittsburgh Penguins earlier this year, but the league attached too many restrictions to the sale for it approval, namley making it nearly impossible for Basillie to relocate the team.
Basillie's company is famous for the development of the BlackBerry device, and is based in Waterloo, Ontario. The spec is that with the Preds struggling (average attendance 13,815 about 2,000 below the leauge average according to this ESPN.com story, Basillie is buying the team planning to move them to this area of Canada. Further speculation is fueled by the report he acquired more than 25 acres of land in Waterloo, potentially to build a new arena from the ground up.
The Nashville Predators have a "Major League" (as in the 1989 film about a fictional Cleveland Indians team facing the same problem) type clause in their lease, where if the attendance drops below a certain level, the team may leave the city (which operates the Sommet Center, that just signed a new naming rights deal). Since last years attendance was below 14,000 the team may exercise a "cure clause," essentially giving the city 1 year notice that if attendance doesn't climb above 14,000 per game the lease terminate upon payment of an "exit fee" and they are free to move. This also give the city the opportunity to make up the difference if they decided to keep the team in Nashville.
The "cure clause" has to be activiated withitin 30 days of the end of the season. This means the Middle of June as the Preds played their last game in the first round being eliminated by San Jose. This means current owner, Wisconsin buisnessman Craig Leopold, has to make this decision as the sale won't be finialized until the end of June after the leauge has had a chance to improve it.
Comment...
It is my belief that the clause will be exercised. It is also my belief that there is no desire on the part of the city to exercise their bail-out option. So the "cure season" will be on in 2007-2008, and it can go a few ways.
First, it can go the movie route, where they tank to ensure they don't sell tickets. The lopsided Petr Forsberg trade lends some credence to this theory. The Preds sent most of their prospects to Philadelphia to acquire Forsberg, he was rather ineffective with the Preds and there seems to be little believe that Nashville plans to re sign him. (In the mean time one of the players that became a Flyer in this trade, Scottie Upshall, has already re-uped with Philly).
Second, Basillie may try to save the team. If he goes that route, he will instantly have raised the value of the franchise if he can get attendance raised. The Preds have potential for about a 30% increase in ticket sales (from 14K to capacity of over 18K) and the incidentals that go with that. It is widley speculated that his motives are to move the team, but he's a buisness man, and won't sneeze at this instant profit realization if it's possible.
Third, if we have really already seen the maximum support the Preds are going to get from the Nashville community, it really won't matter either way. What gives this theory credence is the Predators have been among the leagues elite (not just above average, but eliete). The Preds had the 3rd best record in the NHL last regular season. There misfortune in part has been being drawn into the Central with Detroit (though this has provided an actual rivalry between the do), they've had record good enough for division titles, but always behind Detroit. Also they have drawn San Jose twice in the playoffs, and the Sharks are a great playoff team, leading them to first round exits. Still this is a team that's good enough for better support than 13K per game, and that just hasn't been realized here.
My feeling is we're in case 3, there isn't pressure on the government to lift the team to keep them, which means a "Save the Preds" type of drive may not be effective. While we are talking about 200 fans per game however, however if the government isn't feeling the pressure, there are probably not enough fas that will, and they're won't be the same "farewell tour" feeling as there was with the North Stars in their final dates, or the Penguins until they were saved on the final week of this season.
This is now too long for one post, I will speculate on the relocation ramifications of this sale in the next one...
Basillie's company is famous for the development of the BlackBerry device, and is based in Waterloo, Ontario. The spec is that with the Preds struggling (average attendance 13,815 about 2,000 below the leauge average according to this ESPN.com story, Basillie is buying the team planning to move them to this area of Canada. Further speculation is fueled by the report he acquired more than 25 acres of land in Waterloo, potentially to build a new arena from the ground up.
The Nashville Predators have a "Major League" (as in the 1989 film about a fictional Cleveland Indians team facing the same problem) type clause in their lease, where if the attendance drops below a certain level, the team may leave the city (which operates the Sommet Center, that just signed a new naming rights deal). Since last years attendance was below 14,000 the team may exercise a "cure clause," essentially giving the city 1 year notice that if attendance doesn't climb above 14,000 per game the lease terminate upon payment of an "exit fee" and they are free to move. This also give the city the opportunity to make up the difference if they decided to keep the team in Nashville.
The "cure clause" has to be activiated withitin 30 days of the end of the season. This means the Middle of June as the Preds played their last game in the first round being eliminated by San Jose. This means current owner, Wisconsin buisnessman Craig Leopold, has to make this decision as the sale won't be finialized until the end of June after the leauge has had a chance to improve it.
Comment...
It is my belief that the clause will be exercised. It is also my belief that there is no desire on the part of the city to exercise their bail-out option. So the "cure season" will be on in 2007-2008, and it can go a few ways.
First, it can go the movie route, where they tank to ensure they don't sell tickets. The lopsided Petr Forsberg trade lends some credence to this theory. The Preds sent most of their prospects to Philadelphia to acquire Forsberg, he was rather ineffective with the Preds and there seems to be little believe that Nashville plans to re sign him. (In the mean time one of the players that became a Flyer in this trade, Scottie Upshall, has already re-uped with Philly).
Second, Basillie may try to save the team. If he goes that route, he will instantly have raised the value of the franchise if he can get attendance raised. The Preds have potential for about a 30% increase in ticket sales (from 14K to capacity of over 18K) and the incidentals that go with that. It is widley speculated that his motives are to move the team, but he's a buisness man, and won't sneeze at this instant profit realization if it's possible.
Third, if we have really already seen the maximum support the Preds are going to get from the Nashville community, it really won't matter either way. What gives this theory credence is the Predators have been among the leagues elite (not just above average, but eliete). The Preds had the 3rd best record in the NHL last regular season. There misfortune in part has been being drawn into the Central with Detroit (though this has provided an actual rivalry between the do), they've had record good enough for division titles, but always behind Detroit. Also they have drawn San Jose twice in the playoffs, and the Sharks are a great playoff team, leading them to first round exits. Still this is a team that's good enough for better support than 13K per game, and that just hasn't been realized here.
My feeling is we're in case 3, there isn't pressure on the government to lift the team to keep them, which means a "Save the Preds" type of drive may not be effective. While we are talking about 200 fans per game however, however if the government isn't feeling the pressure, there are probably not enough fas that will, and they're won't be the same "farewell tour" feeling as there was with the North Stars in their final dates, or the Penguins until they were saved on the final week of this season.
This is now too long for one post, I will speculate on the relocation ramifications of this sale in the next one...
Stanley Cup Playoff Pool - Round 3
Okay, sorry this has taken me so long following the conclusion of Round 3, but here are the standings, featuring a new leader.
M: Buffalo v. Ottawa - OTW wins 4-1
N: Detroit v. Anaheim - ANA wins 4-2
(f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R2+M+N)
(f) 2> Matt (150, 100+25+20)
(f) 1> Justin (138, 123+5+10)
(b) 3> Mom (137, 107+5+25)
(f) 4> Jen (129, 94+25+10)
(f) 5> Jered (97, 97+0+0)
At 10 points per game in the finals it's still anybody's pool. The series Begins on Monday between Buffalo and Anaheim. I'll post the series post tommorow, and I will figure a way to do a secret ballot if necessary.
M: Buffalo v. Ottawa - OTW wins 4-1
N: Detroit v. Anaheim - ANA wins 4-2
(f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R2+M+N)
(f) 2> Matt (150, 100+25+20)
(f) 1> Justin (138, 123+5+10)
(b) 3> Mom (137, 107+5+25)
(f) 4> Jen (129, 94+25+10)
(f) 5> Jered (97, 97+0+0)
At 10 points per game in the finals it's still anybody's pool. The series Begins on Monday between Buffalo and Anaheim. I'll post the series post tommorow, and I will figure a way to do a secret ballot if necessary.
19 May 2007
Stanley Cup Playoff Pool, Round 3 Update
Okay here are the Standings so far for round 3.
M: Buffalo v. Ottawa - OTW leads 3-1
N: Detroit v. Anaheim - Tied 2-2
f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R2+M+N)
(f) 1> Justin (138, 123+5+10)
(f) 2> Matt (125, 100+15+10)
(b) 3> Mom (122, 107+5+10)
(f) 4> Jen (119, 94+15+10)
(f) 5> Jered (97, 97+0+0)
Matt and Jen are gaining ground, largly due to Ottawa's crushing of Buffalo so far, if the Sabres don't make it closer there could be some lead changes. And remember it's 10pts/game in the finals so it's gonna be close.
M: Buffalo v. Ottawa - OTW leads 3-1
N: Detroit v. Anaheim - Tied 2-2
f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R2+M+N)
(f) 1> Justin (138, 123+5+10)
(f) 2> Matt (125, 100+15+10)
(b) 3> Mom (122, 107+5+10)
(f) 4> Jen (119, 94+15+10)
(f) 5> Jered (97, 97+0+0)
Matt and Jen are gaining ground, largly due to Ottawa's crushing of Buffalo so far, if the Sabres don't make it closer there could be some lead changes. And remember it's 10pts/game in the finals so it's gonna be close.
15 May 2007
J the TV Critic (fall schedule and other randomness edition)
NBC released their fall schedule today, I'm thrilled that "The Office" and "1 v. 100" will be back next fall.
Speculating on the other networks, I really hope I haven't seen the last episode of "How I met Your Mother" on CBS tonight. This is the smartest show on TV. And the story is getting really good. The ratings started this season strong, but trailed off a bit in the second half of the season. For my other CBS favorite "Two and a half men" it seems to be a lock to be renewed.
If you agree with me on HIMYM click here: http://www.cbs.com/info/user_services/fb_global_thanks.shtml, if you don't well you just hate the awesome things in life.
Fox, announced they'll be bringing back the Brad Garrett comedy "'Til Death"! I'm happy about that. I really would like to see more "The War at Home" (the first so called "irreverant" comedy I've ever loved), but they seem to be up in the air about that. Of course my favorite cartoons, "The Simpsons" (I am sick to death of "Simpsons" haters just because the show has been on for 18 years, it's still got it, and it's still better than 90% of of what's on TV.) and "Family Guy" are both signed through 2008-09.
Oh and in what's new news, ABC debut's "National Bingo Night" on Friday. Bingo? On TV? Yeah not gonna work, this is such a bad idea. I guess I shouldn'tve been too suprised to find out that Kmart is one of the major sponsors ($10,000 GIFT CARD grand prize, woo hoo!). It now occurs to me I don't watch anything on ABC anyway now.
Oh this is weird, in former big TV star news, I came across this trailer for a Dreamworks animated film called "Bee Movie" (http://www.beemovie.com/). No doubt trying to catch some of the same fire as "Madagascar" (which starred Chris Rock and David Schwimmer among others). But I must admit Seinfeld starring in a movie like this is quite surprising. In the Q & A during his "I'm telling you for the last time" perfomance, he admits he doesn't like the idea of being in a movie, saying, "If you're watching a bad movie, it's two hours, if you're in a bad movie, its like two years....I'm afraid I'd be the one on screen looking at the audience like 'this sucks, doesn't it'". I hope the movie's good, but my first impression is something doesn't seem right.
http://abc.go.com/primetime/nationalbingonight/index?pn=prizes
On a meloncoly note, Bob Barker is saying goodbye soon, he as a "Price Is Right Million Dollar Spectactular" on CBS Wednesday night. I'll be sure to catch that.
Other info from:
http://www.thefutoncritic.com
http://www.tv.com
Speculating on the other networks, I really hope I haven't seen the last episode of "How I met Your Mother" on CBS tonight. This is the smartest show on TV. And the story is getting really good. The ratings started this season strong, but trailed off a bit in the second half of the season. For my other CBS favorite "Two and a half men" it seems to be a lock to be renewed.
If you agree with me on HIMYM click here: http://www.cbs.com/info/user_services/fb_global_thanks.shtml, if you don't well you just hate the awesome things in life.
Fox, announced they'll be bringing back the Brad Garrett comedy "'Til Death"! I'm happy about that. I really would like to see more "The War at Home" (the first so called "irreverant" comedy I've ever loved), but they seem to be up in the air about that. Of course my favorite cartoons, "The Simpsons" (I am sick to death of "Simpsons" haters just because the show has been on for 18 years, it's still got it, and it's still better than 90% of of what's on TV.) and "Family Guy" are both signed through 2008-09.
Oh and in what's new news, ABC debut's "National Bingo Night" on Friday. Bingo? On TV? Yeah not gonna work, this is such a bad idea. I guess I shouldn'tve been too suprised to find out that Kmart is one of the major sponsors ($10,000 GIFT CARD grand prize, woo hoo!). It now occurs to me I don't watch anything on ABC anyway now.
Oh this is weird, in former big TV star news, I came across this trailer for a Dreamworks animated film called "Bee Movie" (http://www.beemovie.com/). No doubt trying to catch some of the same fire as "Madagascar" (which starred Chris Rock and David Schwimmer among others). But I must admit Seinfeld starring in a movie like this is quite surprising. In the Q & A during his "I'm telling you for the last time" perfomance, he admits he doesn't like the idea of being in a movie, saying, "If you're watching a bad movie, it's two hours, if you're in a bad movie, its like two years....I'm afraid I'd be the one on screen looking at the audience like 'this sucks, doesn't it'". I hope the movie's good, but my first impression is something doesn't seem right.
http://abc.go.com/primetime/nationalbingonight/index?pn=prizes
On a meloncoly note, Bob Barker is saying goodbye soon, he as a "Price Is Right Million Dollar Spectactular" on CBS Wednesday night. I'll be sure to catch that.
Other info from:
http://www.thefutoncritic.com
http://www.tv.com
10 May 2007
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
#1 Buffalo v. #4 Ottawa
This could prove to be the best series of the entire playoffs, both teams are rather similar, and arguably the two best teams in the league. They both boast good offenses, and young but capable goaltenders. The Sabres defense has become better in the playoffs, and that helped them stay in games where the offense dissapeared against the New York Rangers. The Sabres however dissapeared in games 2 through 5 in the Rangers series, and they simply can't afford to do that against Ottawa. Ottawa was every bit as stifling to New Jersey as they were against Pittsburgh. I have to give a slight edge to Ryan Miller in goal for the Sabres, he's been a little more consistent, and Ray Emery seems to be fighting pucks, and giving too many rebounds away. However the Sens D has helped secure these rebounds to minimize their effect. This one will be close, but I will stick with the Sabres.
Buffalo in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Detroit v. #2 Anaheim
I keep thinking Detroit is too old to go deep in the playoffs, and they keep proving me wrong. San Jose wasn't the same after losing Game 4 in the final seconds and overtime. For the Ducks they boast a great defense, but anyone can stifle the offensive-dead Vancouver Canucks. Detroit controls the puck well and will be a different look. It'll be close, and getting anthing past Guigre will be tough. But I like the Wings to be back to the final for the first time in 5 years.
Detroit in 7
#1 Buffalo v. #4 Ottawa
This could prove to be the best series of the entire playoffs, both teams are rather similar, and arguably the two best teams in the league. They both boast good offenses, and young but capable goaltenders. The Sabres defense has become better in the playoffs, and that helped them stay in games where the offense dissapeared against the New York Rangers. The Sabres however dissapeared in games 2 through 5 in the Rangers series, and they simply can't afford to do that against Ottawa. Ottawa was every bit as stifling to New Jersey as they were against Pittsburgh. I have to give a slight edge to Ryan Miller in goal for the Sabres, he's been a little more consistent, and Ray Emery seems to be fighting pucks, and giving too many rebounds away. However the Sens D has helped secure these rebounds to minimize their effect. This one will be close, but I will stick with the Sabres.
Buffalo in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Detroit v. #2 Anaheim
I keep thinking Detroit is too old to go deep in the playoffs, and they keep proving me wrong. San Jose wasn't the same after losing Game 4 in the final seconds and overtime. For the Ducks they boast a great defense, but anyone can stifle the offensive-dead Vancouver Canucks. Detroit controls the puck well and will be a different look. It'll be close, and getting anthing past Guigre will be tough. But I like the Wings to be back to the final for the first time in 5 years.
Detroit in 7
07 May 2007
Stanley Cup Playoff Pool Round 3
The Conference Finals are set! Here are the matchups, make your picks.
Eastern Conference Finals
Series M: #1 Buffalo v. #4 Ottawa
Western Conference Finals
Series N: #1 Detroit v. #2 Anaheim
For the Schedule...
http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=304243
Picks are due Thursday by 5:30pm CT (30 minutes before the start of Game 1 of Ottawa v. Buffalo). Remeber each time your team wins it's worth 5 points, plus a 5 point bonus if your team wins the series. Good luck!
Eastern Conference Finals
Series M: #1 Buffalo v. #4 Ottawa
Western Conference Finals
Series N: #1 Detroit v. #2 Anaheim
For the Schedule...
http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=304243
Picks are due Thursday by 5:30pm CT (30 minutes before the start of Game 1 of Ottawa v. Buffalo). Remeber each time your team wins it's worth 5 points, plus a 5 point bonus if your team wins the series. Good luck!
Stanley Cup Playoff Pool, Round 2 Final
Round Two of the pool is over. Here are the results:
Series I: BUF v. NYR - BUF 4-2
Series J: NJ v. OTW - OTW 4-1
Series K: DET v. SJ - DET 4-2
Series L: ANA v. VAN - ANA 4-1
(f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R1+I+J+K+L)
(f) 1> Justin (123, 72+15+15+6+15)
(b) 2> Mom (107, 56+15+15+6+15)
(f) 3> Matt (100, 64+15+3+15+3)
(f) 4> Jered (97, 46+15+15+6+15)
(f) 5> Jen (94, 58+15+3+15+3)
Conference Finals are set, we'll be playing for 5 points per game in Round 3, and 10 points per game in the final, so plenty of time left :). I'll put the matchups in the next post, make your picks there :)!
Series I: BUF v. NYR - BUF 4-2
Series J: NJ v. OTW - OTW 4-1
Series K: DET v. SJ - DET 4-2
Series L: ANA v. VAN - ANA 4-1
(f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R1+I+J+K+L)
(f) 1> Justin (123, 72+15+15+6+15)
(b) 2> Mom (107, 56+15+15+6+15)
(f) 3> Matt (100, 64+15+3+15+3)
(f) 4> Jered (97, 46+15+15+6+15)
(f) 5> Jen (94, 58+15+3+15+3)
Conference Finals are set, we'll be playing for 5 points per game in Round 3, and 10 points per game in the final, so plenty of time left :). I'll put the matchups in the next post, make your picks there :)!
01 May 2007
NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Pool - Round 2 Standings
Okay here are the first standings of Round 2. Matt and Jen made the same picks, and I, Jered and Mom also made the same picks, but different from Matt and Jen.
Series I: BUF v. NYR - BUF 2-1
Series J: NJ v. OTV - OTW 2-1
Series K: DET v. SJ - SJ 2-1
Series L: ANA v. VAN - ANA 2-1
(f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R1+I+J+K+L)
(f) 1> Justin (96, 72+6+6+6+6)
(b) 2> Mom (80, 56+6+6+6+6)
(f) 3> Matt (79, 64+6+3+3+3)
(f) 4> Jen (73, 58+6+3+3+3)
(f) 5> Jered (70, 46+6+6+6+6)
I'm way ahead, all the rest of you are getting closer :)!
Series I: BUF v. NYR - BUF 2-1
Series J: NJ v. OTV - OTW 2-1
Series K: DET v. SJ - SJ 2-1
Series L: ANA v. VAN - ANA 2-1
(f)-facebook entry, (b)- blogspot entry
Rnk> Player: (Tot, R1+I+J+K+L)
(f) 1> Justin (96, 72+6+6+6+6)
(b) 2> Mom (80, 56+6+6+6+6)
(f) 3> Matt (79, 64+6+3+3+3)
(f) 4> Jen (73, 58+6+3+3+3)
(f) 5> Jered (70, 46+6+6+6+6)
I'm way ahead, all the rest of you are getting closer :)!
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