Thursday the blogosphere was rocked with news of the sale of the Nashville Predators to Research in Motion CEO Jim Basillie. This has fueled speculation as to whether the team will relocate. Basillie attempted to buy the Pittsburgh Penguins earlier this year, but the league attached too many restrictions to the sale for it approval, namley making it nearly impossible for Basillie to relocate the team.
Basillie's company is famous for the development of the BlackBerry device, and is based in Waterloo, Ontario. The spec is that with the Preds struggling (average attendance 13,815 about 2,000 below the leauge average according to this ESPN.com story, Basillie is buying the team planning to move them to this area of Canada. Further speculation is fueled by the report he acquired more than 25 acres of land in Waterloo, potentially to build a new arena from the ground up.
The Nashville Predators have a "Major League" (as in the 1989 film about a fictional Cleveland Indians team facing the same problem) type clause in their lease, where if the attendance drops below a certain level, the team may leave the city (which operates the Sommet Center, that just signed a new naming rights deal). Since last years attendance was below 14,000 the team may exercise a "cure clause," essentially giving the city 1 year notice that if attendance doesn't climb above 14,000 per game the lease terminate upon payment of an "exit fee" and they are free to move. This also give the city the opportunity to make up the difference if they decided to keep the team in Nashville.
The "cure clause" has to be activiated withitin 30 days of the end of the season. This means the Middle of June as the Preds played their last game in the first round being eliminated by San Jose. This means current owner, Wisconsin buisnessman Craig Leopold, has to make this decision as the sale won't be finialized until the end of June after the leauge has had a chance to improve it.
Comment...
It is my belief that the clause will be exercised. It is also my belief that there is no desire on the part of the city to exercise their bail-out option. So the "cure season" will be on in 2007-2008, and it can go a few ways.
First, it can go the movie route, where they tank to ensure they don't sell tickets. The lopsided Petr Forsberg trade lends some credence to this theory. The Preds sent most of their prospects to Philadelphia to acquire Forsberg, he was rather ineffective with the Preds and there seems to be little believe that Nashville plans to re sign him. (In the mean time one of the players that became a Flyer in this trade, Scottie Upshall, has already re-uped with Philly).
Second, Basillie may try to save the team. If he goes that route, he will instantly have raised the value of the franchise if he can get attendance raised. The Preds have potential for about a 30% increase in ticket sales (from 14K to capacity of over 18K) and the incidentals that go with that. It is widley speculated that his motives are to move the team, but he's a buisness man, and won't sneeze at this instant profit realization if it's possible.
Third, if we have really already seen the maximum support the Preds are going to get from the Nashville community, it really won't matter either way. What gives this theory credence is the Predators have been among the leagues elite (not just above average, but eliete). The Preds had the 3rd best record in the NHL last regular season. There misfortune in part has been being drawn into the Central with Detroit (though this has provided an actual rivalry between the do), they've had record good enough for division titles, but always behind Detroit. Also they have drawn San Jose twice in the playoffs, and the Sharks are a great playoff team, leading them to first round exits. Still this is a team that's good enough for better support than 13K per game, and that just hasn't been realized here.
My feeling is we're in case 3, there isn't pressure on the government to lift the team to keep them, which means a "Save the Preds" type of drive may not be effective. While we are talking about 200 fans per game however, however if the government isn't feeling the pressure, there are probably not enough fas that will, and they're won't be the same "farewell tour" feeling as there was with the North Stars in their final dates, or the Penguins until they were saved on the final week of this season.
This is now too long for one post, I will speculate on the relocation ramifications of this sale in the next one...
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