Here are today's scenarios for groups G and H.
25 June 2010
Groups G and H play Today!!
24 June 2010
23 June 2010
Groups C and D play TODAY!!
Here are the group C and D scenario's for today!
22 June 2010
Groups A and B PLAY TODAY!
Just a reminder to check out my scenairo post for today's matches!
21 June 2010
Groups G and H scenarios (Fr, 25 June)
NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
GROUP G
North Korea - Ivory Coast
Portugal - Brazil
Groups G and H I believe are the two strongest in the tournament and the top two finishers of each will be paired together in the round of 16 (1st G v 2nd H, 2nd G v 1st H). Brazil and Portugal are definitely two of the five best sides in the world. This is a late round caliber match in the group stage. Brazil is certainly through and thanks to that 7-0 drubbing of North Korea, Portugal will be there barring a major, major collapse (yes a collapse even worse than the Boston Bruins this year). When we get to group H you will see it looks like Chile and Spain, both could prove to be difficult matchups. Ivory coast is a long shot having to win and make up 9 goals in the difference column, North Korea is eliminated (not that I expect Kim Jong-Il to tell his citizens the truth on that).
Brazil (6, +3, 5)
------
WILL ADVANCE TO THE NEXT ROUND.
Win Group G with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Portugal (4, +7, 7)
--------
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
LOSS with CIV LOSS or DRAW with PRK
LOSS with CIV WIN with combined margin less than 9*
Win Group G with...
ANY WIN
Ivory Coast (1, -2, 1)
-----------
Advance to next round with...
WIN with CIV loss with combined margin greater than 9*
North Korea (0, -8, 1)
-----------
WILL NOT ADVANCE TO THE NEXT ROUND.
GROUP H (1.30pm ct)
Switzerland - Honduras
Chile - Spain
Chile are a very underrated side despite the fact they lead Brazil during much of South American Qualifying. Spain are ranked highly, but have shown the vulnerabilities that saw them upset at last summers Confederation's cup. Switzerland are still very much alive as their final match is against a disappointing Honduras side which looked good in CONCACAF qualifying. (personally I'm glad Honduras' ping pong ball was drawn here instead of the US's back in december, I imagine the Yanks would've fared only slightly better than Honduras in this group). The Swiss have a shot, but must get some help to overcome their one goal defecit to Spain. Honduras is mathematically alive, but basically in the same situation France and South Africa are in at Group A. They need a couple big results to go their way.
Chile (6, +2, 2)
-----
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
LOSS with SUI LOSS or DRAW with HON
LOSS with SUI WIN with combined margin of 2 with CHI scoring a greater or the same number of goals as SUI*
Win Group H with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Spain (3, +1, 2)
-----
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with SUI LOSS or DRAW with HON
Win Group H with...
ANY WIN with SUI LOSS or DRAW with HON
WIN with SUI WIN with SPA's margin of victory over CHI being the same or greater than CHI's over HON*
Switzerland (3, 0, 1)
-----------
Advance to the next round with...
WIN with SPA LOSS or DRAW with CHI
WIN with SPA WIN with combined margin of greater than 2*
DRAW with SPA LOSS against CHI
Win Group H with...
WIN with SPA WIN with SUI's margin of victory being more than 1 greater* than that of SPA over CHI.
Honduras (0, -3, 0)
--------
Advance to the next round with...
WIN with margin of victory of at least 2 goals* over SUI with SPA Loss to CHI with combined margin of greater than 4*
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
Groups E and F scenarios (Th, 24 June)
NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
GROUP E (1.30pm ct)
Denmark - Japan
Cameroon - Netherlands
Netherlands clearly in the drivers seat in this group, though I must say I'm disappointed by their only scoring 3 goals. Denmark and Japan will essentially be playing to see who advances. The goal Denmark conceded on that sloppy clearance in the first half against Cameroon on Saturday is looking pretty important as that is why Japan has the slight edge in goal difference, meaning a draw on Thursday is good enough for Japan. A big result combined with a shocking upset of Netherlands by the eliminated Cameroon might jump Japan or Denmark into first.
Netherlands (6, +3, 3)
-----------
WILL ADVANCE TO NEXT ROUND.
Win Group E with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
DEN and JPN DRAW
LOSS with JPN WIN with combined margin less than 3*
LOSS with DEN WIN with combined margin less than 4*
Japan (3, 0, 1)
-----
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Win Group E with...
WIN with NED LOSS with combined margin greater than 3*
Denmark (3, -1, 2)
-------
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
Win Group E with...
WIN with NED LOSS with combined margin greater than 4*
Cameroon (0, -2, 1)
--------
CANNOT ADVANCE TO NEXT ROUND.
GROUP F (9.00am ct)
Paraguay - New Zealand
Slovakia - Italy
This group is very much like Group C with only one decision so far. Paraguay are in front, but they are in a vulnerable position should they lose on Thursday. The defending champion Italy have played to a pair of 1-1 draws as have the All Whites of New Zealand. Every goal is huge in this quartet on Thursday, and every team is still alive.
Paraguay (4, +2, 3)
--------
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
LOSS with SVK and ITA DRAW
LOSS with SVK WIN with combined margin of less than 4*
Win Group F with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with ITA LOSS or DRAW with SVK
DRAW with ITA WIN by margin of less than 2*
Italy (2, 0, 2)
-----
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with NZ LOSS to PAR
DRAW with PAR and NZ DRAW with ITA outscoring NZ*
Win Group F with...
WIN with NZ WIN with ITA winning by a larger margin than NZ
WIN with margin of more than 2* with PAR and NZ DRAW
New Zealand (2, 0, 2)
-----------
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with SVK and ITA draw with NZ outscoring ITA*
Win Group F with...
WIN with PAR loss to SVK
WIN with ITA win with NZ winning by a larger margin than ITA
WIN with SVK and ITA draw
Slovakia (1, -2, 1)
--------
Advance to the next round with...
WIN with NZ LOSS or DRAW with PAR
WIN with NZ WIN over PAR with SVK's margin of victory being more than 2 greater* than NZ's.
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
Groups C and D scenarios (We, 23 Jun)
NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible omitted in the interest of simplicity. These scenairos are in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by the head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
GROUP C (9.00am ct)
United States - Algeria
Slovenia - England
Oh so much controversy, and I resisted the temptation to write an extra post with these scenarios had the USA beat Slovenia 3:2. England has been a total disappointment (yes looking at you Ben Van Nelson!) but could all be forgiven with a win over Slovenia? Every team controls their own destiny (well Algeria may need a little help if they upset the yanks)
Slovenia (4, +1, 3)
--------
Advances to the next round with...
ANY WIN OR DRAW
LOSS with USA and ALG DRAW
LOSS with ALG WIN with a combined margin of 2 with SLV being outscored by ALG by less than 3*
Wins Group C with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with ALG WIN or DRAW with USA
DRAW with USA WIN by no more than 1 goal with USA scoring fewer goals than SLV*
United States (2, 0, 3)
-------------
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with SLV win
DRAW with SLV and ENG draw with USA being outscored by ENG by less than 2*
Wins Group C with...
WIN and ENG win with USA having a greater margin of victory than ENG (or the same margin of victory with the USA being outscored by ENG by less than 2*)
WIN by a margin of 2 with SLV draw with ENG (or win by margin of 1 with USA scoring more goals than SLV).
England (2, 0, 1)
-------
Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with US and ALG DRAW with ENG outscoring USA by more than 2*
Win Group C with...
WIN with ALG WIN or DRAW with USA
WIN with USA WIN with ENG having a greater margin of victory than USA (or the same margin of victory with ENG outscoring USA by more than 2*)
Algeria (1, -1, 0)
-------
Advance to the next round with...
WIN with SLV WIN or DRAW
WIN with SLV LOSS to ENG with combined margin of greater than 2*
GROUP D (1.30pm ct)
Australia - Serbia
Ghana - Germany
Ghana seem to be the one African side to have success on their home continent. Germany being upset by Serbia has made this group suddenly wide open. The Aussies 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Germans will cost them many tiebreakers, some of their qualifying scenarios (correctly) look absurd as a result.
Ghana (4, +1, 2)
-----
Advance to the next round with...
Any WIN or DRAW
LOSS with AUS WIN with combined margin of less than 5*
LOSS by margin of 1 with AUS and SER draw with SER outscoring GHA by no more than 1.
Wins Group D with...
Any WIN
DRAW with AUS WIN or DRAW with SER
Germany (3, +3, 4)
-------
Advance to the next round with...
Any WIN
DRAW with AUS WIN with by margin of less than 7*
DRAW with AUS and SER draw.
Win Group D with...
WIN with AUS WIN or DRAW with SER
WIN with SER WIN with SER margin of victory being less than 3 greater* than GER's
Serbia (3, 0, 1)
------
Advance to the next round with...
Any WIN
DRAW with GER loss to GHA
Win Group D with...
WIN with GHA and GER DRAW
WIN with GER win with SER margin of victory being more than 3 greater* than GER's
Austrailia (1, -4, 1)
----------
Advance to the next round with...
WIN with GHA win over GER
WIN with GER win over GHA with combined margin greater than 5*
WIN with margin of greater than 7* with GHA and GER DRAW
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
Groups A and B scenarios (Mo, 22 Jun)
NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
Teams listed in order of current standing (points, goal difference, and goals for in parenthesis)
GROUP A (9.00am ct)
Mexico - Uruguay
France - South Africa
The final matches in group A probably provide the least excitement of the groups. Uruguay and Mexico are clearly in the driver's seat and both should go through if their match is close. South Africa or France will need a somewhat big victory combined with a somewhat big defeat by Uruguay and Mexico. Uruguay are basically fighting to avoid Argentina in the Round of 16.
Uruguay (4, +3, 3)
-------
Advances to the next round with...
Any WIN or DRAW OR
Any DRAW bteween RSA and FRA OR
LOSS with RSA win with a combined margin of less than 6* OR
LOSS with FRA win with a combnied margin of less than 5*
Wins Group A with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Mexico (4, +2, 3)
------
Advances to the next round with...
Any WIN or DRAW OR
Any DRAW bteween RSA and FRA OR
LOSS with RSA win with a combined margin of less than 5* OR
LOSS with FRA win with a combnied margin of less than 4*
Wins Group A with...
ANY WIN
France (1, -2, 0)
------
Advances to the next round with...
WIN and MEX loss with a combined margin of more than 4* OR
WIN and URU loss with a combined margin of more than 5*
South Africa (1, -3, 1)
------------
Advances to the next round with...
WIN and MEX loss with a combined margin of more than 5* OR
WIN and URU loss with a combined margin of more than 6*
GROUP B (1.00pm ct)
Nigeria - South Korea
Greece - Argentina
It looks pretty good for Argentina to win Group B, only a large defeat will keep them from winning the group. But an exciting battle for the second spot between South Korea and Greece, though the teams will be playing in different matches. South Korea have a slight edge with an extra goal scored (teams being tied on points and goal difference), plus they get to face the currently pointless Nigeria. Still Nigeria have a shot to get in as they've kept their matches close and would emerge with the best goal difference if Greece should lose as well, creating a 3 way tie for 2nd place.
Argentina (6, +4, 5)
---------
Advances to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW OR
ANY NGA win, or NGA DRAW with KOR OR
LOSS by a margin of 2 goals or fewer OR
LOSS and KOR WIN with a combined margin of less than 5*
Wins Group B with...
ANY WIN OR DRAW OR
LOSS by a margin of 2 goals or fewer WITH NGA win or draw with KOR OR
LOSS by a margin of 2 goals or fewer WITH KOR win over NIG with a combined margin of less than 5*
South Korea (3, -1, 3)
-----------
Advances to the next round with...
WIN with ARG win or draw with GRE OR
WIN with GRE victory over ARG with KOR having a greater margin of victory than GRE (or same margin of victory with KOR scoring the same or greater number of goals than GRE)* OR
WIN with ARG loss to GRE with a combined margin of greater than 5*
DRAW with NGA with ARG win over GRE oR
DRAW with NGA with ARG draw with GRE with KOR scoring the greater number of goals as GRE)*
Wins Group B with...
WIN by margin of 3 goals or more with GRE win over ARG with combined margin greater than 5* with KOR having a margin of victory greater over NGA than GRE over ARG (or an equal margin of victory with KOR scoring the same or greater number of goals as GRE)*
Greece (3, -1, 2)
------
Advances to the next round with...
WIN with NGA WIN or DRAW with KOR OR
WIN by a marign of 3 goals more over ARG with KOR win OR
WIN with KOR win with GRE having a greater margin of victory (or the same margin of victory with GRE scoring 2 more goals than KOR)*
DRAW with KOR loss to NGA
DRAW with KOR draw with NGA with GRE scoring 2 more goals than KOR*
Wins Group B with...
WIN by a margin of 3 goals or more with NGA WIN or DRAW with KOR OR
WIN by a margin of 3 goals or more with KOR WIN with GRE having a greater margin of victory (or the same margin of victory with GRE scoring 2 more goals than KOR)*
Nigeria (0, -2, 1)
-------
Advances to the next round with...
WIN with GRE loss to ARG
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
World Cup 2010 End of Group Play
Hello,
Resurrecting this blog from the dead to post the goings on from this wacky week of the world cup. This is when I think the World Cup really gets taken up a notch. It's a great buffer between the usually careful early matches and the pressure of the single elimination stage. This is the week when all the teams play their 3rd and final group matches, and the possibilities are almost endless. Brazil and Netherlands are through to the next round, North Korea and Cameroon are going home. Aside from that 28 teams will battle for the 14 remaining places over the next 4 days.
The really exciting thing about the World Cup format is that the final matches of each group are played simultaneously. ESPN and ESPN2 will each have a match going. Before I got a 9 to 5 job, I would be able to watch more of this tournament and would set my two TV's up next to one another (you can do something similar with espn3.com's mosaic mode if you have it available). But if you know the scenarios, and what to watch for, you can watch both matches at the same time, and in many instances it will seem like all four teams are playing against one another. Look for the next four posts and hopefully it will make your WC viewing exciting this week.
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