NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
GROUP G
North Korea - Ivory Coast
Portugal - Brazil
Groups G and H I believe are the two strongest in the tournament and the top two finishers of each will be paired together in the round of 16 (1st G v 2nd H, 2nd G v 1st H). Brazil and Portugal are definitely two of the five best sides in the world. This is a late round caliber match in the group stage. Brazil is certainly through and thanks to that 7-0 drubbing of North Korea, Portugal will be there barring a major, major collapse (yes a collapse even worse than the Boston Bruins this year). When we get to group H you will see it looks like Chile and Spain, both could prove to be difficult matchups. Ivory coast is a long shot having to win and make up 9 goals in the difference column, North Korea is eliminated (not that I expect Kim Jong-Il to tell his citizens the truth on that).
Brazil (6, +3, 5)
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WILL ADVANCE TO THE NEXT ROUND.
Win Group G with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Portugal (4, +7, 7)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
LOSS with CIV LOSS or DRAW with PRK
LOSS with CIV WIN with combined margin less than 9*
Win Group G with...
ANY WIN
Ivory Coast (1, -2, 1)
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Advance to next round with...
WIN with CIV loss with combined margin greater than 9*
North Korea (0, -8, 1)
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WILL NOT ADVANCE TO THE NEXT ROUND.
GROUP H (1.30pm ct)
Switzerland - Honduras
Chile - Spain
Chile are a very underrated side despite the fact they lead Brazil during much of South American Qualifying. Spain are ranked highly, but have shown the vulnerabilities that saw them upset at last summers Confederation's cup. Switzerland are still very much alive as their final match is against a disappointing Honduras side which looked good in CONCACAF qualifying. (personally I'm glad Honduras' ping pong ball was drawn here instead of the US's back in december, I imagine the Yanks would've fared only slightly better than Honduras in this group). The Swiss have a shot, but must get some help to overcome their one goal defecit to Spain. Honduras is mathematically alive, but basically in the same situation France and South Africa are in at Group A. They need a couple big results to go their way.
Chile (6, +2, 2)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
LOSS with SUI LOSS or DRAW with HON
LOSS with SUI WIN with combined margin of 2 with CHI scoring a greater or the same number of goals as SUI*
Win Group H with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Spain (3, +1, 2)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with SUI LOSS or DRAW with HON
Win Group H with...
ANY WIN with SUI LOSS or DRAW with HON
WIN with SUI WIN with SPA's margin of victory over CHI being the same or greater than CHI's over HON*
Switzerland (3, 0, 1)
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Advance to the next round with...
WIN with SPA LOSS or DRAW with CHI
WIN with SPA WIN with combined margin of greater than 2*
DRAW with SPA LOSS against CHI
Win Group H with...
WIN with SPA WIN with SUI's margin of victory being more than 1 greater* than that of SPA over CHI.
Honduras (0, -3, 0)
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Advance to the next round with...
WIN with margin of victory of at least 2 goals* over SUI with SPA Loss to CHI with combined margin of greater than 4*
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
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