NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
GROUP E (1.30pm ct)
Denmark - Japan
Cameroon - Netherlands
Netherlands clearly in the drivers seat in this group, though I must say I'm disappointed by their only scoring 3 goals. Denmark and Japan will essentially be playing to see who advances. The goal Denmark conceded on that sloppy clearance in the first half against Cameroon on Saturday is looking pretty important as that is why Japan has the slight edge in goal difference, meaning a draw on Thursday is good enough for Japan. A big result combined with a shocking upset of Netherlands by the eliminated Cameroon might jump Japan or Denmark into first.
Netherlands (6, +3, 3)
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WILL ADVANCE TO NEXT ROUND.
Win Group E with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
DEN and JPN DRAW
LOSS with JPN WIN with combined margin less than 3*
LOSS with DEN WIN with combined margin less than 4*
Japan (3, 0, 1)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
Win Group E with...
WIN with NED LOSS with combined margin greater than 3*
Denmark (3, -1, 2)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
Win Group E with...
WIN with NED LOSS with combined margin greater than 4*
Cameroon (0, -2, 1)
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CANNOT ADVANCE TO NEXT ROUND.
GROUP F (9.00am ct)
Paraguay - New Zealand
Slovakia - Italy
This group is very much like Group C with only one decision so far. Paraguay are in front, but they are in a vulnerable position should they lose on Thursday. The defending champion Italy have played to a pair of 1-1 draws as have the All Whites of New Zealand. Every goal is huge in this quartet on Thursday, and every team is still alive.
Paraguay (4, +2, 3)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN or DRAW
LOSS with SVK and ITA DRAW
LOSS with SVK WIN with combined margin of less than 4*
Win Group F with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with ITA LOSS or DRAW with SVK
DRAW with ITA WIN by margin of less than 2*
Italy (2, 0, 2)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with NZ LOSS to PAR
DRAW with PAR and NZ DRAW with ITA outscoring NZ*
Win Group F with...
WIN with NZ WIN with ITA winning by a larger margin than NZ
WIN with margin of more than 2* with PAR and NZ DRAW
New Zealand (2, 0, 2)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with SVK and ITA draw with NZ outscoring ITA*
Win Group F with...
WIN with PAR loss to SVK
WIN with ITA win with NZ winning by a larger margin than ITA
WIN with SVK and ITA draw
Slovakia (1, -2, 1)
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Advance to the next round with...
WIN with NZ LOSS or DRAW with PAR
WIN with NZ WIN over PAR with SVK's margin of victory being more than 2 greater* than NZ's.
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
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