NOTE: "combined margin" refers to the sum of the margin of victory for the team reqired to win and the margin of defeat for the team required to lose in a particular scenario.
*Indicates other scenarios possible omitted in the interest of simplicity. These scenairos are in the event of a tie on GD with GF being the next tiebreaker. Placement for teams tied on both GD and GF are determined by the head to head result (if not drawn) followed by drawing of lots.
GROUP C (9.00am ct)
United States - Algeria
Slovenia - England
Oh so much controversy, and I resisted the temptation to write an extra post with these scenarios had the USA beat Slovenia 3:2. England has been a total disappointment (yes looking at you Ben Van Nelson!) but could all be forgiven with a win over Slovenia? Every team controls their own destiny (well Algeria may need a little help if they upset the yanks)
Slovenia (4, +1, 3)
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Advances to the next round with...
ANY WIN OR DRAW
LOSS with USA and ALG DRAW
LOSS with ALG WIN with a combined margin of 2 with SLV being outscored by ALG by less than 3*
Wins Group C with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with ALG WIN or DRAW with USA
DRAW with USA WIN by no more than 1 goal with USA scoring fewer goals than SLV*
United States (2, 0, 3)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with SLV win
DRAW with SLV and ENG draw with USA being outscored by ENG by less than 2*
Wins Group C with...
WIN and ENG win with USA having a greater margin of victory than ENG (or the same margin of victory with the USA being outscored by ENG by less than 2*)
WIN by a margin of 2 with SLV draw with ENG (or win by margin of 1 with USA scoring more goals than SLV).
England (2, 0, 1)
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Advance to the next round with...
ANY WIN
DRAW with US and ALG DRAW with ENG outscoring USA by more than 2*
Win Group C with...
WIN with ALG WIN or DRAW with USA
WIN with USA WIN with ENG having a greater margin of victory than USA (or the same margin of victory with ENG outscoring USA by more than 2*)
Algeria (1, -1, 0)
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Advance to the next round with...
WIN with SLV WIN or DRAW
WIN with SLV LOSS to ENG with combined margin of greater than 2*
GROUP D (1.30pm ct)
Australia - Serbia
Ghana - Germany
Ghana seem to be the one African side to have success on their home continent. Germany being upset by Serbia has made this group suddenly wide open. The Aussies 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Germans will cost them many tiebreakers, some of their qualifying scenarios (correctly) look absurd as a result.
Ghana (4, +1, 2)
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Advance to the next round with...
Any WIN or DRAW
LOSS with AUS WIN with combined margin of less than 5*
LOSS by margin of 1 with AUS and SER draw with SER outscoring GHA by no more than 1.
Wins Group D with...
Any WIN
DRAW with AUS WIN or DRAW with SER
Germany (3, +3, 4)
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Advance to the next round with...
Any WIN
DRAW with AUS WIN with by margin of less than 7*
DRAW with AUS and SER draw.
Win Group D with...
WIN with AUS WIN or DRAW with SER
WIN with SER WIN with SER margin of victory being less than 3 greater* than GER's
Serbia (3, 0, 1)
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Advance to the next round with...
Any WIN
DRAW with GER loss to GHA
Win Group D with...
WIN with GHA and GER DRAW
WIN with GER win with SER margin of victory being more than 3 greater* than GER's
Austrailia (1, -4, 1)
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Advance to the next round with...
WIN with GHA win over GER
WIN with GER win over GHA with combined margin greater than 5*
WIN with margin of greater than 7* with GHA and GER DRAW
These scenarios take into account the first tiebreaker goal difference and in some instances the second tiebreaker goals scored. If you believe there is anything incorrect leave comments :).
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